← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 57% | 49% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +8% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 20% | 26% | 4.96 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.75 | 48% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 64% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 36% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Justin Lonwijk · Fortuna Sittard |
| 19' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 21' | ⚽ | Sven Mijnans · AZ |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 40' | 🟨 | Philip Brittijn · Fortuna Sittard |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | 🟨 | Shawn Adewoye · Fortuna Sittard |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mees de Wit · AZ |
| 86' | ⚽ | Philip Brittijn · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 934.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1470.04 | 1680.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.74 | -0.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| league points | 18.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 7.82 | 2.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.85 |