← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.10 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AFC Ajax −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 72% | 1.46 | value: +5% |
| Under | 34% | 28% | 2.82 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Vítězslav Jaroš · NEC |
| 11' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · NEC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mika Godts · AFC Ajax |
| 46' | ⚽ | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 59' | 🟥 | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rayane Bounida · AFC Ajax |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mika Godts · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Crettaz · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youri Regeer · AFC Ajax |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 353.00 |
| 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1623.13 | 1691.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.69 | 35.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.55 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.84 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.27 |