← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 42% | 37% | 2.33 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 33% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.83 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| SC Heerenveen +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 65% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 35% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel |