← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 57% | 58% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.48 | value: +3% |
| Volendam win | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Volendam +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 67% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · NEC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Brandley Kuwas · Volendam |
| 46' | ⚽ | Darko Nejašmić · NEC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Başar Önal · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Başar Önal · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ozan Kökçü · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yannick Leliendal · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kento Shiogai · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 524.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1377.00 | 1620.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.09 | 35.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.34 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.90 |