← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 83% | 81% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 9.73 | value: +12% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 7% | 8% | 14.96 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −2.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 70% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 30% | 4.03 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Quinten Timber · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 75' | 🟨 | Oussama Targhalline · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 84' | ⚽ | Casper Tengstedt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Fichtinger · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Koen Kostons · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days |
| 308.00 |
| 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1739.79 | 1498.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -66.78 | -1.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.78 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 6.27 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -1.10 | -1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.62 | — |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 2.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.29 |