← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 47% | 51% | 2.06 | value: +5% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 26% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AFC Ajax +0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 22' | 🟨 | Rayane Bounida · AFC Ajax |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ivo Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Syb van Ottele · AFC Ajax |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Fosso · AFC Ajax |
| 49' | 🟨 | Youri Baas · AFC Ajax |
| 52' | ⚽ | Owen Wijndal · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | 🟥 | Justin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 60' | 🟨 | Youri Baas · AFC Ajax |
| 60' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| 🟥 |
| Youri Baas · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ryan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard |
| 86' | 🟨 | Vítězslav Jaroš · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 919.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1500.23 | 1674.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.92 | -42.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 24.77 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.09 |