← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Martijn Vos, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 47% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Groningen +0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 48% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Thijmen Blokzijl · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rick Meissen · SBV Excelsior |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marco Rente · FC Groningen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Thom van Bergen · FC Groningen |
| 70' | 🟥 | Stijn Middendorp · SBV Excelsior |
| 85' | 🟨 | Yoon Do-young · SBV Excelsior |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marco Rente · FC Groningen |
| 89' | 🟥 | Marco Rente · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 552.00 | 888.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1422.83 | 1482.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.21 | -4.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 1.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.20 |