← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 44% | 49% | 2.22 | value: +10% |
| AZ win | 31% | 24% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| AZ −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 42% | 2.54 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 49' | 🟨 | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kees Smit · AZ |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Guilherme Peixoto · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Chávez · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 883.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1641.27 | 1712.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.36 | -29.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 1.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.11 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 22.91 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 2.07 |