← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 41% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +7% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 31% | 28% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Utrecht +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht |
| 44' | 🟨 | Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht |
| 50' | ⚽ | Gjivai Zechiël · FC Utrecht |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alonzo Engwanda · FC Utrecht |
| 82' | ⚽ | Richonell Margaret · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 84' | 🟨 | Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 517.00 | 821.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1527.10 | 1636.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.89 | 12.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 2.73 | 2.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -1.98 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.01 |