← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 59% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.34 | value: +16% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 19% | 16% | 5.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| NEC −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 65% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 35% | 2.71 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Lance Duijvestijn · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Teo Quintero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 75' | 🟨 | Shurandy Sambo · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kento Shiogai · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Young · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 332.00 | 393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1611.06 | 1541.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.70 | 1.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 6.27 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.20 |