← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 49% | 40% | 1.99 | fair |
| Heracles win | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 33% | 3.77 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Shawn Adewoye · Fortuna Sittard |
| 25' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jan Žambůrek · Heracles |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mimeirhel Benita · Heracles |
| 57' | 🟨 | Édouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tristan van Gilst · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 912.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1491.27 | 1455.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.63 | 27.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 1.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 2.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.53 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.97 |