← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Stan Teuben, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 51% | 53% | 1.87 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 25% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 64% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 36% | 2.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Thijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ringo Meerveld · SC Heerenveen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Shola Shoretire · PEC Zwolle |
| 51' | 🟨 | Simon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Maas Willemsen · SC Heerenveen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mats Egbring · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Faberski · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days |
| 150.00 |
| 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1489.47 | 1522.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.00 | 18.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.10 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.14 | 5.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -2.07 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 2.14 |