← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 37% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 37% | 42% | 2.70 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Go Ahead Eagles +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 64% | 1.68 | value: +8% |
| Under | 43% | 36% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Damon Mirani · Heracles |
| 23' | 🟨 | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jan Žambůrek · Heracles |
| 34' | ⚽ | Mathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 38' | ⚽ | Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 51' | ⚽ | Damon Mirani · Heracles |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 69' | 🟥 | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Asito Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 144.00 | 509.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1438.17 | 1555.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.72 | 14.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.76 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.19 | 13.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -1.79 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.22 |