β Eredivisie 2025-26 Β· Sat, Nov 22, 05:45 PM UTC Β· ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 66% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.25 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 11% | 22% | 8.58 | value: +89% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax β1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SBV Excelsior β1.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 62% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand