← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 37% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 36% | 38% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam +0 | 50% | 1.90 |
| PEC Zwolle +0 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Ayoub Oufkir · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 62' | 🟨 | Teo Quintero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 66' | 🟨 | Thijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle |
| 80' | 🟨 | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 85' | 🟨 | Teo Quintero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 85' | 🟥 | Teo Quintero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joël Drommel · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1477.13 | 1555.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.07 | -3.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.36 | 6.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -2.40 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.34 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.44 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.37 |