← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 41% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Volendam win | 34% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| NAC Breda +0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Boy Kemper · NAC Breda |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Nick Verschuren · NAC Breda |
| 53' | 🟥 | Lewis Holtby · NAC Breda |
| 58' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · Volendam |
| 68' | 🟨 | Robin van Cruijsen · Volendam |
| 78' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Volendam |
| 81' | 🟨 | Brandley Kuwas · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fredrik Jensen · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 495.00 | 525.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1363.56 | 1406.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.63 | 8.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.95 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.23 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.37 |