← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen +0.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| FC Twente '65 +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 43% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 6' | 🟨 | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · FC Twente '65 |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marvin Peersman · FC Groningen |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ramiz Zerrouki · FC Twente '65 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mats Rots · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Euroborg |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 855.00 | 855.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1498.71 | 1636.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.36 | 17.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| league points | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 1.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 2.31 |