← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 37% | 34% | 2.55 | fair |
| Heracles win | 37% | 38% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Heracles +0 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 15' | 🟨 | Nick Fichtinger · PEC Zwolle |
| 18' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 20' | 🟨 | Simon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nick Fichtinger · PEC Zwolle |
| 38' | 🟥 | Nick Fichtinger · PEC Zwolle |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 50' | ⚽ | Mike te Wierik · Heracles |
| 59' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Asito Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Bryan Limbombe · Heracles |
| 67' | ⚽ | Alec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles |
| 71' | ⚽ | Kaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 89' | ⚽ | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 124.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1403.46 | 1500.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.23 | -14.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.72 | 7.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -1.90 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.15 |