← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Groningen win | 37% | 36% | 2.58 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 33% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Groningen +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Fortuna Sittard +0 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |