← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 58% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 19% | 20% | 6.00 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −1 | 54% | 1.95 |
| SC Heerenveen −1 | 46% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 42% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Terence Kongolo · SC Heerenveen |
| 55' | ⚽ | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda |
| 68' | ⚽ | Maas Willemsen · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Eser Gürbüz · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Václav Sejk · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 237.00 | 510.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1526.95 | 1400.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.06 | 7.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.32 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.35 | 25.41 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.58 |