← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 53% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.90 | value: +5% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −0.75 | 53% | 1.88 |
| NAC Breda −0.75 | 47% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Sherel Constancio Floranus · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda |
| 43' | ⚽ | Koen Kostons · PEC Zwolle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Simon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raul Paula · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 504.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1386.87 | 1501.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.96 | -36.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 15.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -1.39 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 2.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.79 |