← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | fair |
| AZ win | 29% | 25% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| AFC Ajax −0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 41% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Mees de Wit · AZ |
| 25' | ⚽ | Weslley Patati · AZ |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 52' | 🟨 | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 59' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 72' | 🟨 | Youri Baas · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | 🟨 | Peer Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1718.37 | 1685.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.67 | -38.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.19 | 13.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.37 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.70 |