← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 69% | 75% | 1.40 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.50 | fair |
| Volendam win | 13% | 9% | 8.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Volendam −1.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| FC Utrecht −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand