← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 38% | 34% | 2.68 | fair |
| NEC win | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.90 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 51% | 2.00 |
| NEC +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 41% | 2.52 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Thomas Ouwejan · NEC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Mats Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ramiz Zerrouki · FC Twente '65 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Thomas Van den Belt · FC Twente '65 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Youssef El Kachati · NEC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Başar Önal · NEC |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Arno Verschueren · NEC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 290.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1585.35 | 1646.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.52 | 6.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | 2.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 12.85 | 13.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 1.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 2.31 |