← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Martijn Vos, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 39% | 33% | 2.51 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 37% | 38% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.10 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Go Ahead Eagles +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Mathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Jari De Busser · NEC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Darko Nejašmić · NEC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Crettaz · NEC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 85' | 🟥 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| coach days | 461.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1543.20 | 1584.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.93 | -11.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 3.05 | 7.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.20 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.38 |