← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.26 | value: +7% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 20% | 20% | 4.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| SBV Excelsior −0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 64% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 36% | 2.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Irakli Yegoian · SBV Excelsior |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vasilios Zagaritis · SC Heerenveen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Chris-Kévin Nadje · SBV Excelsior |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gyan de Regt · SBV Excelsior |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Dylan Vente · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Václav Sejk · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sam Kersten · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 217.00 | 490.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1498.01 | 1407.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.18 | 12.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.27 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.21 |