← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 56% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.27 | value: +5% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 21% | 27% | 4.58 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax +0.75 | 50% | 1.92 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 65% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 35% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | 🟨 | Julian Baas · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kian Fitz-Jim · AFC Ajax |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Tobias Lauritsen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mitchell van Bergen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 55' | ⚽ | Joshua Kitolano · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 73' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mika Godts · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel |
| coach days | 337.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1537.10 | 1721.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.98 | -10.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 3.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 1.05 |
| solidity v1 | -1.98 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.87 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.58 |