← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 47% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| NEC win | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.10 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| AZ +0.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 68% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Mees de Wit · AZ |
| 26' | ⚽ | Başar Önal · NEC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 44' | 🟨 | Peer Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mexx Meerdink · AZ |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Dirk Proper · NEC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 85' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 270.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1584.74 | 1741.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.13 | 9.28 |
| eye test v1 | 1.91 | 1.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 3.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 1.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.66 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.51 | 2.22 |