← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 38% | 27% | 2.64 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 36% | 44% | 2.70 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +0 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 64% | 1.67 | value: +7% |
| Under | 43% | 36% | 2.31 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Shurandy Sambo · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mimeirhel Benita · Heracles |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 46' | 🟨 | Damon Mirani · Heracles |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jens Toornstra · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 65' | ⚽ | Yvandro Borges Sanches · Heracles |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 84' | 🟨 | Joshua Kitolano · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Asito Stadium |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1409.55 | 1559.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.48 | 9.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -2.71 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.64 | 2.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.29 |