← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volendam win | 39% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 34% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| PEC Zwolle +0 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · Volendam |
| 31' | 🟨 | Thijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 56' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Volendam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tristan Gooijer · PEC Zwolle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Robin van Cruijsen · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aurelio Oehlers · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jadiel Pereira da Gama · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 453.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1349.80 | 1533.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.17 | -12.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 2.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -1.34 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.33 | 23.67 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.06 |