← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 78% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.98 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 10% | 7% | 10.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −1.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AFC Ajax −1.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Under | 36% | 30% | 2.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rio Hillen · NAC Breda |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ko Itakura · AFC Ajax |
| 41' | 🟨 | Mohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oliver Edvardsen · AFC Ajax |
| 46' | ⚽ | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | 🟨 | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
| 71' | 🟨 | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
| 71' | 🟥 | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 57.00 | 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1732.85 | 1397.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.50 | 17.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.42 | — |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 2.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.52 |