← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 66% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.83 | value: +3% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 14% | 16% | 7.05 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Twente '65 −1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jasper Dahlhaus · Fortuna Sittard |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Bart van Rooij · FC Twente '65 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Justin Lonwijk · Fortuna Sittard |
| 76' | 🟨 | Naci Ünüvar · FC Twente '65 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Paul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard |
| 78' | ⚽ | Thomas Van den Belt · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luka Tunjić · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 818.00 | 848.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1657.62 | 1510.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.47 | 31.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.78 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.69 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 26.55 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 0.93 |