← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Wed, Sep 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AZ win | 72% | 76% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.81 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 11% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AZ −1.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| PEC Zwolle −1.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand