← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 39% | 45% | 2.47 | value: +10% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 35% | 31% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +0 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 53% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 47% | 2.43 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Jordy Clasie · AZ |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ro-Zangelo Daal · AZ |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Sem Steijn · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · AZ |
| 51' | ⚽ | Denso Kasius · AZ |
| 56' | ⚽ | Jordan Bos · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 61' | 🟨 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 70' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jaden Slory · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Anis Hadj Moussa · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bart Nieuwkoop · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mexx Meerdink · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 51.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1747.55 | 1845.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.48 | 18.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 3.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | 2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 23.80 | 24.77 |
| state index | 1.19 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 2.10 |