← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 39% | 43% | 2.47 | value: +7% |
| NEC win | 35% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| NEC +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 35% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Ringo Meerveld · SC Heerenveen |
| 41' | 🟨 | Vasilios Zagaritis · SC Heerenveen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · SC Heerenveen |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jacob Trenskow · SC Heerenveen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kodai Sano · NEC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tjaronn Chery · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 204.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1480.96 | 1583.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.57 | 9.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 2.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.50 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | 1.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 2.60 |