← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volendam win | 43% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 32% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.85 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Volendam −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Szymon Włodarczyk · SBV Excelsior |
| 28' | 🟨 | Gyan de Regt · SBV Excelsior |
| 40' | 🟨 | Deron Payne · Volendam |
| 45' | ⚽ | — · Volendam |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adam Carlén · SBV Excelsior |
| 81' | 🟨 | Xavier Mbuyamba · Volendam |
| 84' | 🟨 | Robin van Cruijsen · Volendam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis Schouten · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 446.00 | 476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1360.09 | 1410.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.38 | -6.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -1.22 | -2.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.80 | 24.46 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 2.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.07 |