β Eredivisie 2025-26 Β· Sun, Sep 14, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.56 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 17% | 5.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1 | 51% | 1.99 |
| AZ +1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | β½ | Alexandre Penetra Β· AZ |
| 11' | π¨ | Alexandre Penetra Β· AZ |
| 28' | π¨ | Denso Kasius Β· AZ |
| 29' | β½ | Damon Mirani Β· Heracles |
| 61' | π¨ | Mees de Wit Β· AZ |
| 74' | π¨ | Ajdin HrustiΔ Β· Heracles |
| 74' | π¨ | Jordy Clasie Β· AZ |
| 77' | β½ | Mexx Meerdink Β· AZ |
| 90' | π¨ | Lequincio Zeefuik Β· AZ |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 25 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Asito Stadium |
| coach days | 75.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1422.75 | 1720.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.42 | 21.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 15.77 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | β | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -2.53 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | β | 27.94 |
| state index | -1.38 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.86 |