← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 24, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 35% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SC Heerenveen +0 | 48% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Mats Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 12' | ⚽ | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Taylor Booth · FC Twente '65 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Naci Ünüvar · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Naci Ünüvar · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Václav Sejk · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 176.00 | 785.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1490.83 | 1632.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.13 | -27.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.64 | 6.91 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.21 |