← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 10, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. van der Laan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 81% | 82% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 9.58 | value: +17% |
| Telstar 1963 win | 6% | 6% | 17.61 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax −2 | 54% | 1.90 |
| Telstar 1963 −2 | 46% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 65% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand