← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 10, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 47% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 27% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.78 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| FC Twente '65 +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand