← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, May 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 38% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 38% | 38% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Waalwijk +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 70% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tim van de Loo · Waalwijk |
| 48' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · Waalwijk |
| 55' | 🟨 | Julian Lelieveld · Waalwijk |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dean James · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 70' | ⚽ | Yassin Oukili · Waalwijk |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 77' | ⚽ | Evert Linthorst · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Ihattaren · Waalwijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yassin Oukili · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 29 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days |
| 687.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 4.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1404.66 | 1565.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.84 | -16.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -2.02 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.29 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.97 |