← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Wed, May 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 36% | 37% | 2.64 | fair |
| AZ win | 35% | 36% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| AZ +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 44% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Ruben van Bommel · AZ |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · FC Twente '65 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sven Mijnans · AZ |
| 71' | ⚽ | Denso Kasius · AZ |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alec Van Hoorenbeeck · FC Twente '65 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Peer Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ro-Zangelo Daal · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| coach days | 683.00 | 499.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1673.79 | 1691.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.46 | -8.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 54.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.99 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.54 |