← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Wed, May 14, 06:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 89% | 88% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 7% | 13.45 | fair |
| Heracles win | 4% | 4% | 29.00 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heracles −3 | 51% | 1.90 |
| PSV −3 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 83% | 78% | 1.14 | fair |
| Under | 17% | 22% | 5.50 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 3 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.