← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Wed, May 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 17% | 16% | 5.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AFC Ajax +1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 65% | 1.81 | value: +17% |
| Under | 46% | 35% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 52' | ⚽ | Thom van Bergen · FC Groningen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Leandro Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 68' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · AFC Ajax |
| 81' | 🟨 | Hjalmar Ekdal · FC Groningen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Etienne Vaessen · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mats Seuntjens · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luciano Valente |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Euroborg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thijmen Blokzijl · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 683.00 |
| 378.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 8.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1455.68 | 1730.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.71 | -54.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| league points | 38.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 3.14 | 3.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 1.89 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 29.16 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 2.18 |