← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, May 11, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 78% | 79% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
| NEC win | 8% | 8% | 12.44 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −2 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AFC Ajax −2 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 69% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · NEC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 37' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · NEC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Brayann Pereira · NEC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kian Fitz-Jim · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | ⚽ | Brayann Pereira · NEC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · NEC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff ArenA |
| coach days | 375.00 | 130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 1.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1760.51 | 1527.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.76 | -20.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 74.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 14.09 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.93 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.14 | — |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.36 |