← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +5% |
| Waalwijk win | 30% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Waalwijk +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Richonell Margaret · Waalwijk |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Ion Nicolaescu · SC Heerenveen |
| 43' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | 🟥 | Ilias Sebaoui · SC Heerenveen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Liam van Gelderen · Waalwijk |
| 75' | ⚽ | Yassin Oukili · Waalwijk |
| 79' | ⚽ | Chris Lokesa · Waalwijk |
| 80' | 🟨 | Chris Lokesa · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days |
| 679.00 |
| 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1388.97 | 1504.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.99 | 6.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.85 | 13.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -1.70 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.32 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.40 |