← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 51% | 48% | 1.87 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 25% | 29% | 3.95 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Go Ahead Eagles +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Gerrit Nauber · AZ |
| 44' | ⚽ | Wouter Goes · AZ |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · AZ |
| 47' | 🟨 | Aske Adelgaard · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 74' | ⚽ | Jayden Addai · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enric Llansana · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kees Smit · AZ |
| 90' | 🟥 | Wouter Goes · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 5 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.55 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1575.22 | 1669.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.41 | -40.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 47.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 9.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.24 |