← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 44% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 28% | 31% | 3.45 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −0.25 | 52% | 1.92 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Kamal Sowah · NAC Breda |
| 20' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · PEC Zwolle |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jan Van den Bergh · NAC Breda |
| 54' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cherrion Valerius · NAC Breda |
| 83' | ⚽ | Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kacper Kostorz · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 337.00 | 1280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1412.70 | 1488.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.02 | 11.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 9.73 | 8.64 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.55 |