← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 68% | 60% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.92 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 11% | 19% | 8.50 | value: +61% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Waalwijk −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Leandro Bacuna · FC Groningen |
| 18' | 🟨 | Julian Lelieveld · Waalwijk |
| 45' | ⚽ | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 46' | ⚽ | Noam Emeran · FC Groningen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 60' | ⚽ | Thom van Bergen · FC Groningen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Godfried Roemeratoe · Waalwijk |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mats Seuntjens · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Euroborg |
| coach days |
| 672.00 |
| 672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1447.20 | 1403.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.35 | -16.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.27 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.94 |