← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 60% | 57% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 32% | 4.61 | value: +46% |
| Heracles win | 19% | 11% | 5.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Anis Hadj Moussa · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ivan Mesík · Heracles |
| 36' | ⚽ | Anis Hadj Moussa · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Hwang In-Beom · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jan Žambůrek · Heracles |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jakub Moder · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 78' | ⚽ | Givairo Read · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 89' | 🟥 | Sem Scheperman · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Asito Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 63.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1467.92 | 1839.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.70 | 21.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 35.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 9.95 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.68 |
| state index | -0.00 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.21 |